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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent strugglers rising together. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still