War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".